This announcement is also being advertised under Merit Promotion as announcement DOE-BPA-18-12831-MP. If you intend to apply under a Special Hiring Authority (e.g. Schedule A, VRA, VEOA, etc.), please apply under the Merit Promotion announcement as well.
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The Load Forecasting and Analysis is responsible for BPA load forecasting and analysis, including planning, developing, and administration of programs, systems, and work processes that produce official and ad hoc load forecasts and associated analysis, and preparing and maintaining load forecasting processes, policies, procedures, and internal controls. This function is also responsible for building, distributing, and providing data stewardship for load forecasts for use by Power Services (PS) and Transmission Services (TS), customer contact management and administration, billing, metering, and regional coordination. Load Forecasting and Analysis is the designated BPA organization for all internal/external requests for loads information.
A successful candidate in this position will serve as an expert mathematical statistician (Short Term Forecaster) performing scientific work that involves designing, developing, and adapting mathematical/statistical methods and techniques to processes in carrying out short-term (i.e. sub-hourly, hourly, out 2 weeks) load analysis and forecasting activities. This position requires advanced mathematical and statistical theories, principles, concepts and practices and skills in applying this knowledge to: statistical processes, complex mathematics, data or quantitative analytics.
As a Mathematical Statistician, you will:
- Develop load forecasting methods and models for Short-Term (sub-hourly, hourly, out 2 weeks) for operating level loads through the application of complex mathematical/statistical methods.
- Perform continuing mathematical and statistical investigations into and analyses of comparisons between forecasting models and actual load demands and how the differences affect BPA power and transmission operations.
- Analyze how loads respond to actual (as opposed to forecast) events such as from extreme temperature excursions and provides analyses from a prospective as well as retrospective point of view as to how weather variables (primarily but not limited to temperature) affect loads across the 24 hour period.
- Support power and transmission operations planning activities on a daily basis through the development of forecasting models and adjustments resulting in consistently forecasts that meet established performance requirements.
- Provide timely and high quality subject matter expertise on load changes and support in business operations, marketing meetings, and demand side management meetings. Provide subject matter expertise to external entities in support of energy imbalance markets.
- Formulate, plan, and execute broad or in-depth economic studies based on analysis of loads associated with a subset of requirements customers (including customers with dispatchable generation), and represent those customers with the most complex issues. Analyze loads on a sub-regional level to analyze geographic differences on load.
- Compare forecasts with actual obligations, determine the reasons for differences, and assess the impact of those differences on the reliability of future forecasts, market rates, and systems operations.
- Evaluate research, interprets economic and environmental conditions, and test and adjust mathematical models to ensure a close correlation with reality and to ensure that operational changes are based on reliable data.
Occasional travel - Occasional travel may be required.